Nevada: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Jerome model

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 51.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 48.5%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to gain only 50.9% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 51.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Nevada. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.1% in Nevada. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.4 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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