Montana: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 45.3% of the two-party vote share in Montana, while Trump will win 54.7%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to gain 57.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, you should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of Montana econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.3%. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 2.4 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 6.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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