The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 47.4% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will win 52.6%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to collect only 46.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Missouri econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 55.0%. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points better.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.3% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.5 percentage points higher.