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Methods widely agree on the election outcome


Today, PollyVote concludes that Clinton will end up with 51.9% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 48.1% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.

In contrast to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 51.2%.

Expectation polls predict a vote share of 51.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 48.8% of the vote.

A trend in the expectation polls and the expert surveys in favor of Clinton has taken shape. The expert surveys have seen this trend for the longest time so far, with an increase of 1.9 percentage points for Clinton's vote share in the last 52 days. On the other hand it's been a continuous loss of votes for Clinton during 10 days according to prediction markets, with a total decrease of 2.2 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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