Latest University of Delaware/PSRAI poll: Clinton and Trump in a tossup
By University of Delaware/PSRAI published the results of a new national poll on July 27. In this poll, which was sponsored by University of Delaware/PSRAI, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
University of Delaware/PSRAI poll results
Of those who replied, 35.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from July 21 to July 24 among 818 participants.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 51.5% for Clinton and 48.5% for Trump. On July 26 Clinton obtained 96.7% in the University of Delaware/PSRAI poll and Trump obtained only 3.3%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 50.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the University of Delaware/PSRAI poll Clinton's poll average is 1.0 percentage point lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers.
