Latest Jerome model in Florida: Trump and Clinton virtually tied

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, whereas Trump will win 49.0%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 50.4% of the vote.

Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Florida econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.5%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in Florida, which is 1.2 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.9 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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