Results of a new national poll conducted by Ipsos/Reuters on behalf of Ipsos/Reuters were published on July 26. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Ipsos/Reuters poll results
Of those who answered the question, 15.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via Internet from July 16 to July 20 among 1232 participants.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 9.0% for Clinton and 91.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently runs at 49.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Relative to his numbers in the Ipsos/Reuters poll Trump's poll average is 41.4 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 42.9 points below his polling numbers.