Jerome model: Trump with small lead in Arkansas

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will collect 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will end up with 51.9%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to achieve 53.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 58.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Arkansas. This value is 6.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.0% in Arkansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 3.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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