Jerome model: Trump with clear lead in Kansas

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 43.8% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, whereas Trump will end up with 56.2%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to collect 58.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Kansas sees Trump at 60.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.9 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.6% in Kansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 8.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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