Jerome model: Trump with clear lead in Indiana

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 43.4% for Clinton and 56.6% for Trump in Indiana. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to collect only 43.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Indiana has Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.7 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Indiana, which is 1.1 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 8.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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