Jerome model: Trump in Wisconsin trails by a moderate margin

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump in Wisconsin. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 54.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Wisconsin econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.1%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.0 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.0% in Wisconsin. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 3.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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