Jerome model: Trump in Oregon trails by a moderate margin
The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump in Oregon. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was predicted to win 45.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Oregon sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Oregon, which is 0.6 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.3 percentage points higher.