Jerome model: Trump in New Jersey trails by a clear margin
The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 57.7% for Clinton and 42.3% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was predicted to achieve 41.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in New Jersey has Clinton at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 56.6% of the two-party vote in New Jersey, which is 1.1 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 5.8 percentage points higher.