Jerome model: Trump in New Hampshire trails by a moderate margin

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump in New Hampshire. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to collect only 53.5% of the vote.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often include large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire sees Clinton at 52.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.8 percentage points worse.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.2% in New Hampshire. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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