Jerome model: Trump in Massachusetts trails by a very clear margin
The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 61.6% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, while Trump will win 38.4%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to gain only 60.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Looking at an average of Massachusetts econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 62.1%. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 63.6% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts, which is 2.0 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 9.7 percentage points higher.