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Jerome model: Trump in Colorado trails by a moderate margin


The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump in Colorado. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to achieve 49.2% of the vote.

Colorado is traditionally a swing state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often achieved similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is considered critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Colorado has Clinton at 52.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Colorado, which is 0.5 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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