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Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead


The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 86.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 13.6%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to garner 15.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 89.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 3.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 90.3%. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 34.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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