Jerome model in West Virginia: Trump with comfortable lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.0% for Clinton and 54.0% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was predicted to achieve 53.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 60.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in West Virginia. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.4 percentage points better.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 7.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.9% in West Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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