The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 44.3% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will end up with 55.7%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to obtain 57.1% of the vote.
In Virginia, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, as they can contain substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Virginia econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 5.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.8% in Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 7.6 percentage points higher.