The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 43.0% of the two-party vote share in South Dakota, whereas Trump will win 57.0%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to win 58.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of South Dakota econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 59.6%. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.3% in South Dakota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 8.9 percentage points higher.