Jerome model in North Carolina: Trump with small lead
The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will end up with 52.8%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to garner 53.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often contain large biases. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of North Carolina econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 53.2%. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.1% in North Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.7 percentage points higher.