Jerome model in New York: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.9% for Clinton and 41.1% for Trump in New York. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 58.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 60.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New York. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.6% in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 7.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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