The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to collect 52.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 52.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Mexico. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.3% in New Mexico. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.3 percentage points higher.