Jerome model in Michigan: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump in Michigan. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to collect only 54.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Michigan econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.8%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.4% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 3.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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