The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 60.8% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, whereas Trump will win 39.2%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 59.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 61.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Maryland. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.3 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 64.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland, which is 3.5 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.9 percentage points higher.