The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to win only 45.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Louisiana econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.5%. This value is 4.2 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.7% in Louisiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.2 percentage points higher.