Jerome model in Kentucky: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to garner 53.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Kentucky econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 58.4%. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Kentucky, which is 7.7 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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