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Jerome model in Idaho: Trump with very clear lead


The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 32.1% of the two-party vote share in Idaho, whereas Trump will end up with 67.9%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 31.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, since they can contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Idaho sees Trump at 68.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 3.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.6% in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 19.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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