The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 32.1% of the two-party vote share in Idaho, whereas Trump will end up with 67.9%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 31.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, since they can contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Idaho sees Trump at 68.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 3.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.6% in Idaho. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 19.8 percentage points higher.