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Jerome model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 58.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will end up with 41.9%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to gain 42.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Hawaii sees Clinton at 64.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.0 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 67.8% of the two-party vote in Hawaii, which is 9.7 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 6.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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