Jerome model in Delaware: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will garner 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Delaware, while Trump will win 46.5%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was predicted to obtain 46.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Delaware econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.4%. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Delaware, which is 4.0 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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