Jerome model in Connecticut: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump in Connecticut. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to gain 53.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Connecticut econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.6% in Connecticut. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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