The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump in California. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was predicted to obtain 46.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in California sees Clinton at 56.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 59.8% of the two-party vote in California, which is 6.5 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.4 percentage points higher.