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Jerome model in Alaska: Trump with very clear lead


The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 30.9% for Clinton and 69.1% for Trump in Alaska. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to win 69.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Alaska econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 64.6%. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 4.5 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 60.8% of the two-party vote in Alaska, which is 8.3 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 21.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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