Jerome model in Alabama: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 45.6% for Clinton and 54.4% for Trump in Alabama. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to gain only 44.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, you should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 59.3% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Alabama. This value is 4.9 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 5.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.2% in Alabama. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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