Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Pennsylvania

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will end up with 46.5%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was predicted to garner 46.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, because they often incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 51.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania, which is 2.0 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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