The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will end up with 46.5%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was predicted to garner 46.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, because they often incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 51.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania, which is 2.0 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points higher.