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Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Maine


The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 55.2% of the two-party vote share in Maine, whereas Trump will end up with 44.8%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 53.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 55.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Maine. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Maine, which is 0.7 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 3.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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