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Jerome model: Clinton with clear lead in Minnesota


The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will garner 58.5% of the two-party vote share in Minnesota, whereas Trump will end up with 41.5%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to gain only 56.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 55.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Minnesota. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.5 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 4.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Minnesota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 6.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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