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Jerome model: Clinton in Texas trails by a small margin


The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will collect 46.8% of the two-party vote share in Texas, while Trump will win 53.2%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to win 54.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Texas sees Trump at 57.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points better.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Texas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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