Jerome model: Clinton in Tennessee trails by a small margin

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump in Tennessee. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to win 53.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 57.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Tennessee. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 5.6 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 56.1% in Tennessee. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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