The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 46.6% of the two-party vote share in South Carolina, whereas Trump will win 53.4%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to win 54.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Results compared to other econometric models
If we look at an average of South Carolina econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 55.7%. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The econometric model results for Trump are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.4% in South Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.3 percentage points higher.