Jerome model: Clinton in Oklahoma trails by a clear margin

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 43.2% for Clinton and 56.8% for Trump in Oklahoma. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 41.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Oklahoma sees Trump at 63.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.6 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 65.2% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma, which is 8.4 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 8.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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