The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will garner 44.3% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will win 55.7%. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to garner 58.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in North Dakota sees Trump at 59.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 3.7 percentage points higher.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.7% of the two-party vote in North Dakota, which is 4.0 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 7.6 percentage points higher.