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J model: Clinton tied with Trump

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The J model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton and Trump will each receive 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on July 20, Clinton was predicted to end up with 50.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 48.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Relative to her numbers in the J model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote, which is 1.9 percentage points above the econometric model results.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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