Iowa: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to collect 46.8% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Iowa has Clinton at 52.4% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Iowa, which is 2.9 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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