Illinois: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.6% for Trump in Illinois. In comparison, on April 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 46.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, you should consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Illinois has Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.3% in Illinois. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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