Georgia: Tossup between Trump and Clinton in latest WSB-TV poll
On July 27, WSB-TV released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
WSB-TV poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 24 to July 24 among 500 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 48.9% for Clinton and 51.1% for Trump. On May 7 Clinton received 49.4% in the WSB-TV poll and Trump received only 50.6%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Georgia sees Trump at 52.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the WSB-TV poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.2 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.