Georgia: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 46.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they often include large biases. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 54.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Georgia. Relative to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.3% in Georgia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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