CNN poll: Trump with 25-point lead
By CNN published the results of a new national poll on July 26. In this poll, which was conducted on behalf of CNN, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
CNN poll results
Of those who answered the question, 27.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via phone from July 22 to July 24, among a random sample of 882 participants.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 37.5% for Clinton and 62.5% for Trump. In the latest CNN poll on July 25 Clinton obtained 48.4%, while Trump obtained only 51.6%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Trump at 49.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 12.9 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the CNN poll.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote is 14.4 points below his polling numbers.
