Arizona: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead
The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will end up with 57.2%. In comparison, on April 26, Clinton was predicted to gain only 42.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Arizona econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.3%. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona, which is 3.1 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.1 percentage points higher.