ARG published the results of a new national poll on July 27. In this poll, which was conducted on behalf of ARG, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
ARG poll results
The results show that 33.0% of participants will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 51.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The phone poll was in the field between July 17 and July 20. The sample size was 990 participants.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 39.3% for Clinton and 60.7% for Trump. In the latest ARG poll on July 26 Clinton received only 8.3%, while Trump received 91.7%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls has Trump at 49.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 11.2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the ARG poll.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 12.6 points below his polling numbers.